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Data / ML

ETA Phone Home: How Uber Engineers an Efficient Route

November 3, 2015 / Global
The ETA displayed in-app, early 2012
The ETA displayed in-app, early 2012.
A view of ETA accuracy from one of our internal dashboards in late January 2015: Gurafu (purple) is more accurate at generating ETAs than Goldeta (green and red). 1.0 indicates 100% accuracy of the predicated ETA. Note that rush hour traffic during commutes (Wednesday evening, Thursday morning) is still more unpredictable than other times. Here, we show San Francisco, but this pattern persists across all of our other cities as well.
A view of ETA accuracy from one of our internal dashboards in late January 2015: Gurafu (purple) is more accurate at generating ETAs than Goldeta (green and red). 1.0 indicates 100% accuracy of the predicated ETA. Note that rush hour traffic during commutes (Wednesday evening, Thursday morning) is still more unpredictable than other times. Here, we show San Francisco, but this pattern persists across all of our other cities as well.
Goldeta vs. Gurafu: The systematic differences between the Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) vs. the Actual Time of Arrival (ATA) across a sample of over a hundred thousand trips. The error distribution of the new ETA system using Gurafu has a taller, tighter distribution than the old ETA system under goldeta. The vertical axis is the number of trips with that error. This means there are smaller errors occurring in a fewer number of occasions
Goldeta vs. Gurafu: The systematic differences between the Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) vs. the Actual Time of Arrival (ATA) across a sample of over a hundred thousand trips. The error distribution of the new ETA system using Gurafu has a taller, tighter distribution than the old ETA system under goldeta. The vertical axis is the number of trips with that error. This means there are smaller errors occurring in a fewer number of occasions.

Posted by Thi Nguyen

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